by: Anura Guruge

Another retirement, today, three weeks after the last. This time it was 79 year old Cardinal Christian Wiyghan Tumi of Cameroon, who had been the Archbishop of Douala. The prior material change relating to a cardinal had been on October 24, 2009. That day, Italian Cardinal Renato Raffaele Martino (b. Nov. 23, 1932), who had been the President of the  Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace since October 2002 resigned, he having been well over the retirement age of 75 for curial cardinals. He had already resigned another post earlier this year. Sixty one year old Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, of Ghana, has been appointed the new President — making him the youngest of the curial cardinals. Before this October 24 change, things had been quiet since July 17.

On July 17, 2009, Cardinal Jean Margéot (Mauritius), a cardinal priest since 1988, died at the age of 93. The last cardinal to die prior to that was the Italian, Franciscan Cardinal Umberto Betti on April 1, 2009, at the age of 87.

On July 4, 2009, Darío Castrillón Hoyos (Columbia), a cardinal priest, turned 80 — and thus lost his right to participate in a conclave. Four days later he retired from his post as President of the Pontifical Commission “Ecclesia Dei.” On June 25, 2009, Francesco Marchisano (Italy), a cardinal deacon, turned 80.

Consequently, the College is now at 185 with 113 under the age of 80 (and thus eligible to vote at a conclave) and 72 over the age of 80.

I as is my wont, I checked yet again, today [i.e., November 17, 2009], on the Vatican list of cardinals.  It says it was last updated 11.11.2008 [i.e., Nov. 11, 2008], and as such it has the total count at 192. THAT WAS A YEAR AGO. So they are kind of way behind. So, per my constant refrain, please be aware if you use these lists that they might not be as up to date as you assume. Why they appear to be reluctant to update their Web site is a mystery. If they really are that short-handed (as I have heard them claim, though I am reminded on Pope John XXIII’s incisive answer when he was once asked how many people worked at the Vatican < see below >) they really should think about getting some interns to help them out.

This is the smallest the College has been in awhile. After the last consistory on November 24, 2007, there were 201 cardinals, with 120 eligible to vote . I had thought that we were due for another consistory this year. November and December are popular months for consistories. So I haven’t totally given up yet. Maybe the pope is preoccupied trying to lure in the Anglican priests. Wonder whether he will make any of them cardinals.

Following my “Next Pope — Papabili List for 2009,” I had some questions as to the amount of sway the curial cardinals would have at the next conclave. So I did some analysis on the composition of the current College beyond just age and nationalities. This is an ongoing effort to keep the data that I found up to-date. This data is now accurate as of July 5, 2009.  There is also a steady trickle of cardinals that retire that impact these numbers. On July 8, Cardinal Darío Castrillón Hoyos, as discussed at the start, retired. Five days earlier, Cardinal Francesco Marchisano (Italy), who had been the President of the Labor Office of the Apostolic See, and Cardinal Andrea Cordero Lanza di Montezemolo (Italy) who had been the Archpriest of Pontifical Basilica of St Paul Outside the Walls retired. Prior to that it had been Cardinal James Francis Stafford (USA) on June 2 and before that Cardinal Michael Michai Kitbunchu (Thailand) on May 14. These have been factored in

Of the 185 total cardinals:

• 6 are Cardinal Bishops, 3 are Oriental Rites Patriarchs, 148 are Cardinal Priests & 28 Cardinal Deacons
• Average age is 77 years
• The macro geographic breakdown is as follows:
  Africa 14, Americas 48 (U.S.A. 16), Asia 19, Europe 100 (Italy 39), Oceania 4
  Africa 13 countries, Americas 16, Asia 12, Europe 23, Oceania 2 — 66 countries in total
  Italy 39, U.S.A 16, Spain 10, France 9, Poland 8, Germany 7, Brazil 8, India 6, Argentina 4, Mexico 4, Canada 3, Ireland 3, Philippines 3 & Switzerland 3

• 4 are Cardinal Bishops, 1 is an Oriental Rites Patriarch, 91 are Cardinal Priests & 17 are Cardinal Deacons
• 19 hold curial offices. Of these 2 are cardinal bishops (viz. Bertone & Re), 5 are cardinal priests and the others cardinal deacons
  (Italy – 7, Rest of Europe – 7, U.S.A. – 1, Latin America – 2 , India – 1 & Africa – 1)
• 63 are Archbishops including two Patriarchs – i.e., Venice and Lisbon (Portugal)
• 1 is Bishop — Mainz (Germany)
• 1 is the Vicar General of Rome, viz. Cardinal Agostino Vallini (papabile)
• 1 is the Grand Master of the Equestrian Order of Jerusalem, viz. Cardinal John Patrick Foley
• 27 are ‘retired,’ i.e., emeritus status
• 1, viz. Cardinal Bernard Francis Law (formally of Boston, USA), is an Archpriest
• Average age is 72 years; 5 in their 79^th year, youngest being Peter Erdö (Hungary) at 56
• 21 belong to religious orders, 4 of whom are Salesians, 3 Franciscans, 2 Jesuits & 2 to Opus Dei
• 83 (74%) of these cardinals were created by Pope John Paul II between 1983 and 2003
• 30 were created by Pope Benedict XVI in 2006 & 2007
• The macro geographic breakdown is as follows:
  Africa 9, Americas 35 (U.S.A. 13), Asia 10, Europe 57 (Italy 19), Oceania 2
  Africa 8 countries, Americas 14, Asia 7, Europe 21, Oceania 2 — 52 countries in total
  Italy 20, U.S.A 13, France 6, Spain 6, Germany 5, Poland 4, Brazil 4, Mexico 4, Canada 3, India 3

• 2 are Cardinal Bishops, 2 are Oriental Rites Patriarch (Babylon of the Chaldeans & Antioch for Maronites), 57 are Cardinal Priests & 11 are Cardinal Deacons
• 1 is an Archbishops – Cardinal Vithayathil, Syro-Malabra (India)
• 64 are ‘retired,’ i.e., emeritus status
• 1 is a nuncio, Cardinal Coppa (Italy)
• 2 are Oriental Rites Patriarchs
• 4, Cardinal Deacons and distinguished academics all, fall into a ‘continuing prior career’ category in that they were created cardinals after they had turned 80 and were thus too old to hold curial offices.
• Average age is 85 years; oldest Cardinal Mayer (Germany) at 98 with three in their 80^th year.
• 15 belong to religious orders with 7 of them Jesuits & 3 Franciscans
• 4 of these cardinals were created by Pope Paul VI between 1969 and 1976
• 62 (86%) by Pope John Paul II between 1979 and 2003
• 6 by Pope Benedict XVI in 2006 & 2007
• The macro geographic breakdown is as follows:
  Africa 5, Americas 13 (U.S.A. 3), Asia 9, Europe 43 (Italy 20), Oceania 2
  Africa 5 countries, Americas 7, Asia 7, Europe 12, Oceania 1 — 32 countries in total
  Italy 19, Spain 4, Poland 4, Brazil 4, France 3,  U.S.A 3, India 3

Pope John XXIII’s answer to the question as to how many people worked at the Vatican: “about half!” Judging by recent events, even that might have been overly optimistic.

I am not a cardinal-watcher. For that matter, I am not really even a pope-watcher. My interest and expertise is in research and analysis. So I really am more of a papal historian and analyst — which is what I have ever professed to be. So please do not rely on me for keeping you updated as to the latest happenings with the cardinals. I do not even check necrology on a daily basis — let alone weekly. Sometimes not even monthly. Though I get a daily summary of Vatican news — I don’t read it! I am usually heads down doing research, writing what I have found or trying to make a living. We do not have another cardinal turning 80 until December 18. But much is likely to change before that. So I expect I will be updating this again in a few weeks.

Hope this helps. All the best.

Anu

I assume it was a crossword puzzle clue. There were over 30 searches for this yesterday and today. So let me help YOU out.

Yes, it is curious that this name has not been used since 1724.

Hope this helps.

Anura Guruge

by Anura Guruge

On July 17, 2009, Cardinal Jean Margéot (Mauritius), a cardinal priest since 1988, died at the age of 93. The last cardinal to die prior to that was the Italian, Franciscan Cardinal Umberto Betti on April 1, 2009, at the age of 87. He had participated in Vatican II. He had been created a cardinal in November 24, 2007 by the current pope (and as such had never participated in a conclave).

With Cardinal Margéot’s passing the College of Cardinals now stands at 185, 113 under the age of 80 and as such still eligible participate in a conclave.

[I am updating all of my other College of Cardinals related postings to reflect these latest numbers.]

On March 5, 1973, Paul VI specified that the maximum numbers of cardinals that would be able to vote in a papal election [i.e., maximum number of electors] would be 120.

John Paul II, in 2001, overlooked this limit. Following what was his last but one consistory there had been 128 electors. He was aware of it. He was assuming, obviously and correctly, that a conclave was not imminent. (If there had been a need for conclave when there were more than 120 electors, the College, most likely, would have precluded the most recently created cardinals from participating in order to conform with the papal edict.) Following his last consistory in 2003 there were 135 electors within a College of 194 (plus one in pectore [i.e., name not announced])!

The world expert on cardinals, Salvador Miranda (who helps me out on a regular basis), has informed me that Benedict XVI, in his first consistory in 2006, stated that he does not intend to exceed Paul VI’s 120 limit for electors.

Cardinal Angelo Sodano, the current Dean of the College of Cardinals, turned 80 on November 23, 2007, one day ahead that last consistory. This meant that there were only 102 electors on the day of the consistory. Benedict created 18 new ones to bring the number to 120.

So after the last consistory on November 24, 2007, there were 201 cardinals, with 120 eligible to vote.

So we are down a total of 16 cardinals and 7 electors from that point.

On June 25, 2009 Cardinal Francesco Marchisano of Italy turned 80. On July 4, Columbian cardinal Dario Castrillon Hoyos will joined him. So we are down to 113 electors. This is not a problem, if anything, it is an opportunity.

At the time of the last conclave in April 2005, there were 183 cardinals in total, with 117 eligible to vote (Cardinal Ratzinger, the current pope, having been one of them).

There is, however, at present, no specified limit to the size of the total College per se, though it is probably limited, implicitly, by the actual number of titular and suburbicarian churches available in and around Rome. Per my calculations there are 211 such churches (but the Dean of the College gets Ostia in addition to another see, so the number in reality is 210). Plus we have the three (3) Eastern Patriarchs who are also in the College. So that gives us 213. That might be the limit — but it maybe possible for the pope, if he so wishes, to find other churches in the vicinity of Rome to add to this list, if he wants a College that is larger than 213.

In 1587, Sixtus V established the size of the College to be 70. This limit stood for 371 years. Then, in 1958, within months of being elected, John XXIII, increased the limit to 75. Then in 1960 he increased it to 88, and in 1962 to 90.

There are also no rules or even conventions as to when a pope should convene a consistory to create cardinals. Pius XII only held two consistories in his 19 year papacy. On the other hand, Pius XI, whose papacy was two years shorter, convened 17 consistories to create cardinals. John Paul II, during his 26 year reign, created 231 cardinals in 9 consistories (the 231 being the most cardinals created by a single pope). Paul VI reigned lasted 15 years. He created 143 cardinals in 6 consistories. So John Paul II convened a cardinal creating consistory, on average, every 2.8 years; Paul VI every 2.5 years.

Benedict XVI became pope on April 19, 2005. He has since created 38 cardinals in 2 consistories; March 24, 2006 and November 24, 2007. So compared to John Paul II and Paul VI, his ‘consistory rate’ is slightly faster.

So he could easily wait another year even before he opts to elect more cardinals — though I think (and I could be dead wrong) that we might see a cardinal creating consistory towards the end of this year, November, ahead of Christmas, being a popular time for consistories.

On December 28 (which also happens to be my father’s birthday) Cardinal Jozef Glemp of Poland will turn 80 (and my father 81).

Hope this helps. Thank you for your time.

Anura

by Anura Guruge

This is in response to a recent query.

The minimum age to be pope is probably 25, that being the minimum age to be a Catholic priest or deacon, but that needs to be qualified and justified.

Contrary to what some believe current Canon Law [i.e., the 1983 code] does not address this, or for that matter any other eligibility criteria as to who could be elected pope. Canon 349, under the chapter “The Cardinals of the Holy Roman Church,” is in reality the only canon that even touches upon papal eligibility. It basically states that the cardinals of the Church make up a special [i.e., exclusive] college that has the prerogative to elect the pope — which, however, will be done per the ‘norm of special law’ [i.e., one that is not included in the canons].

Some Essential Background
By inference, as well as practice, the ’special law’ that governs papal elections is specified by apostolic constitutions and papal edicts. John Paul II’s, February 22, 1996 apostolic constitution, Universi Dominici Gregis (the Lord’s whole flock), modified by Benedict XVI’s June 11, 2007 Motu proprio (‘an edict’) that ratified the need for a two third majority for election at all times, constitute the current ’standing orders’ for the next conclave — and hence the next election.

John Paul II’s constitution, though it states that the electors will be cardinals under the age of 80, does not, in anyway, address who should or could be considered for election. The last papal edict that addressed papal eligibility was Nicholas II’s In Nomine Domini papal bull of 1059. This stated that the electors (just the cardinal bishops at that juncture) should make their choice from within the Roman church [i.e., Roman cardinal priests and deacons]  — but could chose from ‘another church’ if a suitable candidate could not be found from within the Roman church. This essentially reinforced a decree from a 769 Roman synod that mandated that only cardinal priests and cardinal deacons [i.e., clerics associated with the Roman churches] were eligible to be pope — albeit with the proviso that a cleric from outside Rome could be elected, if necessary.

Between 1059 and 1389, 11 of the 47 popes elected were not cardinals. Urban VI, a one time curialist in Avignon [France] and then an archbishop in Italy, elected in 1378 following a very disorderly conclave, has been the last non-cardinal to be pope.

Since November 2, 1389 all 63 of the popes elected, without exception, have been cardinals. The next pope will, indubitably, be chosen from among the cardinals — that serving as the baseline for my papabili list for 2009.

Age Limit for a Priest, Bishop or Cardinal
Canon 378, to do with ‘Bishops,’ states that one must be at least 35 years old to be considered as a bishop. The pope is most definitely the Bishop of Rome. So one could use this 35 year requirement as the minimum age to be a pope.

But then again we have canon 439 that was discussed at the start. The Bishop of Rome, i.e., the pope, is the only bishop that is chosen by cardinals, via a secret ballot, meeting in conclave — per a ’special law.’ There is also Canon 377 that states that bishops are appointed, or their lawful elections are confirmed, by the pope. These factors could be interpreted to mean that the pope, though certainly the Bishop of Rome, is not subject to Canon 378.

So we are back to the Nicholas II’s 1059 bull and the inarguable fact that for the last 600 years, without fail, the cardinal electors have always elected one from within their ranks as pope.

Since 1917 canon law has required that only men that have been ordained at least to the order of a priesthood may be created a cardinal by the pope. Canon 1031 requires one to have reached 25 years in age in order to be ordained as a priest. So since 1917, one needed to be at least 25 in order to be created a cardinal (in marked contrast to Leo X, the second son of the famed Florentine Lorenzo ‘il Magnifico’ de’ Medici who was created a cardinal, at his father’s behest, at the age of 13, in March 1489 — albeit in pectore [i.e., undisclosed to the public]). Yes, in theory, the pope who has near infinite powers in such matters could probably make an exception if he really wanted to create a cardinal that was younger than 25. But this is improbable, at least in the current era.

Since an April 15, 1962 Motu proprio by John XXIII, it has also been a requirement that all cardinals be consecrated as bishops (if they are not already bishops) — unless an explicit waiver is granted by the pope (typically on the grounds of advanced age). This is now incorporated within canon 351, which in part states that those that are not yet bishops must receive episcopal consecration. [It does not state that they at that juncture need to meet the prerequisites stated for being a bishop. If there was that implication, one assumes it would have been alluded to at some point within the canons.] Plus there is the waiver — which has been used a number of  times. So this means that one does not, at least in theory, have to meet the 35 year limit associated with being a bishop in order to be created a cardinal — if a pope so wishes.

Hence, why we are back to 25 again.

The Facts
The youngest cardinal at present is Hungary’s Peter Erdo — who was born on June 25, 1952 (57 years).

The next youngest, at 59, is the French Philippe Xavier Barbarin — #6 on my 2009 papabili list.

The youngest pope elected since 1400 was Leo X (the 13 year old cardinal), at the age of 37, in 1513.

The second youngest, since 1400, happens to be Leo X’s cousin Clement VII, one pope later, at the age of 45. [So there is a 8 year difference between the youngest and the second youngest.]

There have been four other popes, since 1400, who were elected prior to turning 50.

The average age of the 62 popes elected since 1400 is 62.39 years.

One of the youngest popes ever was probably John (‘Octavian’) XII, the illegitimate son of Alberic II who ruled Rome from 932 to 954. Alberic, on his deathbed, coerced influential Romans to promise that they would make sure his son, Octavian, would succeed him as the ruler of Rome and also be appointed the next pope. Octavian became John XII [his step-uncle having been John XI] in December 955 when Agapetus II  died.  John was supposed to have been around 18 years of age at that point. The infamous Benedict IX, who served an unprecedented three terms as pope, was also quite young when  first elected in October 1032. He was the last layman to be elected pope. Though there are those that claim that he was but a teenager when elected in reality he was probably in his twenties.

John Paul II was 58 when elected. The 20th youngest pope since 1400. He was the youngest since June 1846 when Pius IX was elected at the age of 54.

The current pope, Benedict XVI, at 78 years and 3 days was the 5th oldest pope elected since 1400. One has to go back to 1689 to find a pope who was older than 78 at the time of election, that being Alexander VIII who was 79. This Alexander and Clement X, both in their 79th year, being the oldest to be elected — since 1400. Hope this answered the question.

Thank you.

Concept and ALL the research by Mr. Byron Hoover, Papal Expert from Louisiana.

Earlier this week Byron sent me an e-mail asking whether I realized that Honduran Cardinal Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga, #7 in my 2009 papabili list, had seven popes in his episcopal lineage — and that this was more than what any of the other papabili had in their lineage. I did not know that. So I asked Byron, who had also helped me with research into popes who had ‘third order‘ relationships with religious orders, whether he could research this for me — since I was heads-down researching three other papal topics.

Byron very kindly did so.

He noted that Clement XIII, Benedict XIV and Benedict XIII appear in the lineage of many of the recent popes and as well those cardinals in my list of papabili. He also pointed out that per Catholic tradition the Popes are the successors of St. Peter and the bishops are the successors of the Apostles.

I took Byron’s data and created two graphical matrices that show the popes that appear in the episcopal lineages: the first for my top ten papabili and the other for the last 15 popes. This data is all Byron’s work. Thank you, Byron.

But here are some caveats and notes pertaining to this data and the matrices.

Caveats:
1. The lineages shown here focus exclusively on consecrating bishops who would be or were popes.
2. A bold ‘P’ denotes consecration done by a pope. Most were done before they became pope.
3. In most cases there would have been other bishops in the lineage.
4. For complete lineages please refer to the excellent Catholic Hierarchy portal.
Salvador Miranda, the Cardinal expert, also pointed me to this site by Charles Bransom.
5. We do not have data going beyond the 16th century. So the lineages are not complete!

Notes:
1. I included sequence numbers, e.g., 261, to provide perspective.
2. I also underlined, in bold, gaps in the sequence of popes.
3. In the ‘Pope’ matrix the ‘X’ denotes that pope’s name within the lineage lineup (below).

This study is much too narrow to tell us whether having popes in ones episcopal lineage is a ‘leading indicator’ as to ones chances of becoming pope. Obviously Pius XI, who was an unexpected long shot, didn’t have any in his lineage.

The incidence of Clement XIII, Benedict XIV and Benedict XIII intrigued me. But, I think we now have the answer. You can read the details either at the Charles Bransom Web site or on Wikipedia under ‘Pope Benedict XIII.’ Mr. Branson even gives it a name: ‘Rebiban Succession’ — since it has to do with Sicilian Cardinal Scipione Rebiba who was consecrated a bishop in March 1541 and created a cardinal in 1555. Wikipedia states (and we know much of their data needs to be verified against other sources) that Cardinal Rebiba appears in over 91% of the episcopal lineages of the current Catholic bishops (who number around 4,000)! [I cannot vouch for the veracity of this claim.] Pope Benedict’s lineage included Cardinal Rebiba. He, a Dominican friar to begin with, was consecrated a bishop in 1675. He became pope in 1724 and reigned till February 1730. He was, thus, a bishop for 55 years. During that time he consecrated at a minimum 139 bishops in Italy, Germany, France, England and in the new Latin American countries. Cardinal Rebiba and Pope Benedict XIII between them, thus, redefined episcopal lineages in many sees across the world. So this trend.

Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga’s ’seven popes’ is noteworthy (and I have to add that Byron is hoping that this will prove to be a good omen since he is hoping that this charismatic cardinal does better than what my rankings suggest).

So here are the two matrices.

Hope you enjoyed this. Thank you again Byron.

Grace, and may peace be with you all.

Anura Guruge

We looked at the names of the first five papabili, viz. Odilo Pedro Scherer (Archbishop of São Paulo, Brazil), Ennio Antonelli (President, Council for the Family, Vatican curia), Marc Ouellet (Archbishop of Québec, Canada), Wilfrid Fox Napier (Archbishop of Durban, South Africa), and Angelo Scola (Patriarch of Venice, Italy), in Part I.

So in this posting we focus on the other five, viz. Philippe Xavier Barbarin (Archbishop of Lyon, France), Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga (Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Honduras), Christoph Schönborn (Archbishop of Vienna, Austria), Agostino Vallini (Vicar General of Rome, Italy), and José da Cruz Policarpo (Patriarch of Lisbon, Portugal).

‘Philippe’ is a variant of ‘Philip,’ originally a Greek name, and means horse lover. ‘Philip’ is a name that was widely used by French royalty and nobility. ‘Xavier,’ which is popular in Spain and in SW France, means bright or splendid. We haven’t had any popes with these names, or variants — whether as a prior name or a papal name.

[My friend Byron Hoover, with his vast knowledge of papal history sent me an email after reading this post pointing out that there was an antipope named 'Philip' in 768 who reigned for about 24 hours between July 30 and 31! J.N.D. Kelly, the gofather of modern papal historians, claims in his 'Oxford Dictionary of Popes' that Philip should not be regarded as either a pope or antipope. I have, in general, ignored antipopes when it comes to papal names -- only paying some heed to the three named 'John,' in an effort to clarify the numbering (i.e., ordinals) issues to do with the popes of that name. That an antipope had this name in no ways detracts from the Archbishop of Lyon's chances of becoming elected. There are about 39 acknowledged antipopes. The third of these was Felix II. That, after Xystus/Sixtus II, was the 2nd repeated name. But it didn't count since he was an 'anti.' But we have had two more named 'Felix' since.]

We have, however, had two popes with ‘horse’ related names. These being: Conon (which I think may mean little horse) and Clement VIII whose birth name ‘Ippolito’ meant free, galloping horse. Philippe Xavier’s and Óscar Rodríguez’s names got me thinking. I could be wrong, but I have to think that when they were born, their parents, in their wildest dreams, never thought their sons, one day, would be papabili — and possibly even be the pope. I guess most parents don’t even want to tempt fate by thinking that far ahead. If they did, they might have chosen more propitious names, just in case.

From what I can see of ‘recent’ popes and the latest papabili, the only two sets of parents that might have thought, very sotto voce at that, that their sons may one day be popes would have been those of Pius XII and Paul VI. Pius XII’s father and grandfather had long and distinguished ties the Vatican, but there were no clerics in the immediate family circle. The name they gave him, ‘Eugenio,’ meaning well born, and a name used by three prior popes, was certainly auspicious if indeed he was to ever be elected pope. He was, on his 63rd birthday. Paul VI’s father, a lawyer, journalist and parliamentary politician, was actively involved with the lay, ‘Catholic Action’ movement. Given that they sent him to a Jesuit run school there is a possibility that they may had hoped that their son would prosper within the Church hierarchy. The name he was given, ‘John,’ was a good papal name though it hadn’t been used for a very long time at the time of Paul VI’s birth. John XXIII’s parents, sharecroppers, though they gave him an angelic name, probably never imaged that their firstborn would leave the homestead to become a priest.

‘Oscar’ is said to be an Old English name alluding to the spear of the gods. In Gaelic it is said to mean friend of the deer. ‘Oscar’ does not appear in the papal rolls in any form. But we do have some names to do with spears. These being: We have had ‘Gerbert,’ Silvester II, which means glittering spear, ‘Suidger,’ Clement II, that could have meant own a spear and ‘Gérard,’ Nicholas II, meaning brave spear carrier. So we have had the Roman god of war and spear carriers.

‘Christoph,’ a variant of the Greek ‘Christopher,’ obviously has to do with ‘Christ’ and means bearing Christ inside. It is a great name for a papabili or pope, especially since there is a marked shortage of ‘Christ’ related names in the papal rolls — the only possible one being ‘Sergius,‘ servant (of Christ), and I am not even sure that we have that derivation right. In my book I have a question mark (‘?’) against that meaning. [But there was, for 4 fleeting months between September 903 and Januray 904, an antipope named 'Christoper.' But as I mentioned earlier I don't count 'antis.' Must be my technical background. For me at least, it is difficult, to quantify and count something that we by definition say didn't happen -- i.e., an antipope. That is why, by and large, I ignore them.]

Yes, we have a savior, ‘Soter,‘ and resurrection, ‘Anastasius.‘ We also have quite a few ‘God’ based names, for example, John, Zacharias, Theodore and Theophylactus. But nothing even close to a ‘Christoph.’ So, if he does become pope, I think it would be neat if he decides to retain his birth name à la Marcellus II, 454 years ago. John Paul I, in 1978, showed, with aplomb, that it is perfectly permissible for a pope to be innovative when it comes to choosing a regnal name.

‘Agostino,’ is Italian, and means majestic. It is a powerful, evocative name. Despite its roots, it is also another new name vis-à-vis the papal rolls. But we have had names such as Victor, Stephen (peaceful ruler) and Alexander (famed throughout the land).

‘José,’ is the Spanish for ‘Joseph,’ which means the Lord will add (or increase). The current pope Benedict XVI’s birth name was ‘Joseph.’ The Italian form of it ‘Giuseppe’ was the birth name of Pius X. Having the same name as the current pope will not be an impediment for the Patriarch of Lisbon. We have had instances of successive popes with the same birth name, e.g., Clement XIV and Pius VI (Giovanni) and Paul IV and Pius IV (yet again, Giovanni).

So that is what we have in terms of the names of my top ten papabili. Hope you enjoyed it.

Thank you for your time.

Anura Guruge

Grace, and may peace be with you.

Given that I am associated with the analysis of Papal names, it would be remiss of me if I did not study the names of my top ten papabili list for 2009 and make some comments on names.

My top ten, in order, as they appear in popes-and-papacy.com are: Odilo Pedro Scherer (Archbishop of São Paulo, Brazil), Ennio Antonelli (President, Council for the Family, Vatican curia), Marc Ouellet (Archbishop of Québec, Canada), Wilfrid Fox Napier (Archbishop of Durban, South Africa), Angelo Scola (Patriarch of Venice, Italy), Philippe Xavier Barbarin (Archbishop of Lyon, France), Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga (Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Honduras), Christoph Schönborn (Archbishop of Vienna, Austria), Agostino Vallini (Vicar General of Rome, Italy), and José da Cruz Policarpo (Patriarch of Lisbon, Portugal).

I published my list on December 11, 2008 and documented some of my justifications here. That was two months ago. Since then I have done a ton more of research on my top ten, and written up my findings. I am relieved to say that I am still ‘OK’ with my list – though I will confess to being torn between Cardinals Maradiaga and Scherer as to who is best qualified to be the leading Latin American candidate. For now, I will stick with my original rankings.

At one point I was even weighing the pros and cons of being from Brazil vs. Honduras. My father worked for UNESCO for 17 years and during that time I got to learn that there are times when it pays to be from a smaller country. Lets wrap this up by remembering that we have had eight Secretaries-General of the UN, since its formation in 1945. They have come from: Norway, Sweden, Burma, Austria, Peru, Egypt, Ghana and South Korea.

This out of the way, let’s start looking at the names. None of them, as far as I can tell, are related to prior popes. So I will begin with the birth names of the first five – in order. I will write about the next five and my ideas about what assumed names they may select in two other posts – within the next few days.

‘Odilo,’ is Germanic, and means rich [with Cardinal Scherer's family being of Germanic origin]. That is a good name for the Cardinal who has indeed led a rich life of devotion and service. We have not had any popes whose birth name was ‘Odilo.’ But we have had two ‘Odos’, viz. Urban II and Martin V, were ‘Odo’ comes from the German for waelthy.

Since I do not study middle names, nor put too much stock in the so called St. Malachy prophecies (though I did mention them in my Pope Names book), I had not given any attention to his middle name being ‘Pedro’ – i.e., ‘Peter.’

Even if you subscribe to St. Malachy’s contested (believed to be a later addition), last prophecy about ‘Peter the Roman,’ it is going to be quite a stretch to associate that appellation to Odilo Scherer. For a start it is his middle name. Though he did live in Rome between 1994 and 2001, working for the Congregation of Bishops, one could hardly call him ‘Roman.’ He is Brazilian, of German origin. That would be like calling me French because I lived in Paris for awhile!

‘Ennio,’ from the Latin ‘Ennius,’ means predestined or favorite of God. We haven’t had any popes with this name or those whose names in Greek or Hebrew meant the same. But we have had a famous ‘Enea,’ viz. Pius Pius II.

‘Marc’ is the shortened French form of the Latin ‘Marcus’ – a name derived from, and honoring, the Roman god of war Mars. We have had four popes whose names invoke Mars. They are: St. Marcellinus, St. Marcellus I, St. Mark and Marcellus II. The first two on this list were consecutive popes, while Marcellus II [1555] has the distinction of being the last pope not to have assumed a new name – his birth name having been ‘Marcello.’ Marcellinus, Marcellus and Mark, in the case of the first three, were either birth or priestly names. Since the reigns of these three popes were between 296 and 336 we really do not have anything more specific as to their names. I know that most Catholic parent’s oft for Mark in honor of St. Mark, but I often wonder if they know the real derivation of the name.

As I talk about in my Pope Name book, the first known pope to have assumed a papal name, i.e., John II, did so because his birth name ‘Mercurius’ referred to the Roman messenger god. He thought the name was inapporiate for a pope. But the last pope, to date , retain his birth name propogated, without any apparent sense of irony, the name of the Roman war god.

Pictures of Ripon Cathedral from my 2003 Calendar

‘Wilfrid’ is a variant of ‘Wilfred’ and means desiring peace. We haven’t had a pope with this name or its equivalent, in any language. It is a promising name. If elected pope, maybe he will opt to retain it given its germaneness in today’s world [John Paul I, in 1978, demonstrating that it is 'OK' to be innovative when it comes to papal names]. There is a well revered English Saint, St. Wilfrid — associated with one of my favorite places in the world, Ripon. The cardinal probably got his name from this Saint. There are many British organizations and charities associated with this Saint — some of which have strong relations with South Africa. So this may be the connection. ‘Fox’ is also new to the papal lexicon, where this name is believed to have been given to babies born with red hair.

‘Angelo’ means angel and refers to the messenger of God. Most people probably know that the beloved, Blessed John XXIII was Angelo Giuseppe Roncalli. But most probably don’t know that Gregory XII [1406-1415] was Angelo Correr (or Corrario). Pius IV [1559-1565] was Giovanni (Gian) Angelo de Medici. Innocent XIII [1721-1724] was Michelangelo dei Conti while Pius VI [1775-1799] was Giovanni Angelo Braschi. Just in case you were wondering Cardinal Angelo Scola was born in November 1941, seventeen years before Angelo Roncalli became pope.

Part II dealing with the other five papabili to follow shortly. Promise.

Thank you for your time.

Grace, and may peace be with you.

Anura Guruge

< Updated on July 20, 2009 to reflect the death of Cardinal Jean Margéot (Mauritius) on July 17, 2009.>

When compiling my breakdown of the College of Cardinals I realized that only Italy (with 29) had more electors in the College than the U.S.A. (with 13). I knew that some of the Latin American countries certainly had more Catholics than the U.S. So I did some checking and analysis.

Per the 2008 Annuario Pontificio (Vatican’s ‘Pontifical Handbook’) there are ~1.1 billion Catholics around the World.

Then, I found a convenient breakdown of the number of Catholics per country, albeit as 0f 2005, on Wikipedia (and for this study, this was good enough).

Then, per my wont, I went ahead and set up an Excel spreadsheet so I could do some analysis.

Let us start with Brazil, the country with the largest Catholic population (~137 million). Brazil thus has 12.8% of the World’s Catholics. But Brazil only has 8 cardinals in total in the current College, with 4 under the age of 80 (and thus eligible to vote at a conclave) and 4 that are over 80.

Per my updated posts of July 20, 2009 on the breakdown of the College, we currently have a total of 185 cardinals, 113 under the age of 80. This means that Brazil despite its 12.8% of the worldwide constituents only has a total of 4.3% representation in the College — and only 3.5% of the electors.

Mexico, the country with the 2nd largest Catholic population, is also underrepresented by cardinals. Though Mexico has 7.8% of the world’s Catholics, they also only have 4 electors (i.e., 3.5%).

U.S.A., with ~71 million, has the fourth largest Catholic population, representing 6.6% of the world total. But there are 16 U.S. cardinals, i.e., 8.5%.

So here is a breakdown of the top 10 Catholic countries:

July 20, 2009 Cardinal stats by Anura Guruge

While I still had the spreadsheet up on one of my monitors, I decided I might as well go the extra step and do a few more calculations, especially because I knew the results will surprise a few of you.

Based on the 2005 Catholic population estimates, the breakdown of the Catholics per key ‘regions’ is as follows, with the percentage of cardinal electors for that region shown within (parenthesis):

• Europe
  (inc. Ukraine, Lituania, the Balkans etc.) – 26% (50%)
• Latin America – 41% (17%)
• U.S.A & Canada – 8% (14%)
• Africa – 12% (8%)
• Asia – 11% (9%)
• Oceania – 0.7% (2%)

Church prelates are aware of this ‘population’ breakdown, and have been now for quite awhile. Hence, my pick of Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, a high-profile, 60 year old from Brazil, as my top 2009 pick for papabili.

Hope this helps.

Thank you for your time.

Anura Guruge

You can find my top 10 papabili (pl. papabile) list for 2009 at: popes-and-papacy.

Since my book, I get quite a few queries as to who I think the next pope will be, after Pope Benedict XVI, and the new name they are likely to assume. In the past, per this BLOG entry, I have been sending people over to Paddy Power and the online betting ‘book’ they maintain.

This weekend, within the context of the new book I am writing, I spent a lot of time researching the potential papabili. During the course of this, ever mindful of the dangers of speculating on papal succession, I realized that I had no option but to come up with a new list. So I did.

I made a few key assumptions when selecting my set of cardinals and ranking them. These were:

• The next pope, for essentially secular political reasons, is unlikely to be from the U.S.A.
• The next pope is unlikely to be from Germany given that Pope Benedict XVI is German.
• The next pope, when elected, is unlikely to be over 75 years in age.

So have a look at the list. Feel free to use either of the BLOGs as a forum for your comments and feedback. I am all ears.

Many thanks for your time. Merry Christmas and may 2009 shower you with all that is wonderful in life.

Anura Guruge